Data Science for the Mission-Driven

Custom predictive models for organizations that care about more than just the bottom line. Built by one person who actually cares about what you're trying to do.

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32 pts Outperformed $135k Vendor
89.7% Model Recall
8 yrs Healthcare SaaS
1 Person. No BS.

They were quoted $135k for a model that was 32 points worse than mine.

Here's the short version: A healthcare SaaS company was evaluating an enterprise ML platform — quoted at $135k/year — for retention prediction. The vendor ran their proof of technology and got 57.7% recall.

My existing custom model was already at 89.7% recall. The executive team declined the vendor on performance grounds.

How it played out

89.7% recall

My custom model outperformed a $135k enterprise vendor by 32 percentage points on the metric that mattered most.

That's not a flex. It's a demonstration that custom-built models, in the right hands, outperform off-the-shelf platforms — because they're built for your specific data, your specific problem, and your specific definition of success.

I'm now taking that same approach to organizations with missions worth protecting.

Process beats technical skill.

I've been doing this long enough to know that the best model in the world fails if it's bolted onto a mess. So I don't build first. I map first — your data, your workflows, your definition of success.

Step 1: Understand how the org actually operates — usually different from how anyone thinks it does.
Step 2: Get everything in one place. Clean infrastructure before anything intelligent runs on top.
Step 3: Build the model on top of clean data. Custom, explainable, and specific to your problem.
Step 4: Deliver it with a dashboard your team actually uses. Visible value every month.

That order is the whole method. Most people run it backwards. I don't.

Three things that keep your supporters coming back.

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Donor Retention Modeling

Know which supporters are about to lapse before they do. Donor attrition, member lapse, subscriber churn — same problem, different label. I build models that flag at-risk accounts with time to act.

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Donor Segmentation / RFM

Not all supporters are the same. I build segmentation models that show you exactly who to prioritize, how to talk to them, and what they're likely to respond to — based on recency, frequency, and monetary value.

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Internal Dashboards

A central reporting hub that pulls in your existing tools (PowerBI, Tableau, whatever) into one place. Set it up once, it just runs. Your team finally has a single source of truth.

I'm Nate. I build things that predict things.

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Nate Cheever

For the last 8 years, I've been a senior data scientist at a healthcare SaaS company. My job: build models that predict which customers are at risk of leaving, so the customer success team can intervene before it's too late.

I work with two kinds of organizations. Fundraising orgs — public media stations, museums, membership-based nonprofits — where I build retention models directly. And grantmaking foundations, where I help fund retention work across their portfolios: your grantees each lose 60% of first-time donors, so fund me to fix it once for all of them.

Same skills, different door. The math underneath is the same.

Every conversation is with me, the person building your model. No account managers, no handoffs. Just the work.

It's simpler than you'd think.

1

We talk about your problem

I learn about your organization, your data, and what "good" looks like for you. No pitch, just listening.

2

I build the model

One to two weeks. I work with your existing data, build a custom model, and deliver it with full explainability so you understand why it makes the predictions it does.

3

You see results

We integrate it into your workflow. Dashboard, alerts, whatever makes sense. You start retaining more of the people who matter.

4

We keep going (or not)

Ongoing retainer for model maintenance, new features, or the dashboard. No lock-in. If it stops working for you, we part ways.

What would a 5% retention lift mean for your organization?

Move the slider to estimate the value of a custom retention model for your donor or member base.

Annual donor revenue

How much comes from recurring donors and members each year?

$1M $25M $50M $75M $100M+
$25M / yr
Baseline retention (25% avg) $6.3M
+2% retention lift +$126K
+5% retention lift +$315K
+10% retention lift +$630K

Sound like your kind of thing?

I take on a limited number of clients at a time. On the call, I'll show you exactly what a retention model would surface from your data — using your actual numbers. No pitch, just a live walkthrough.

Book 20 minutes →